Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Gallup: Obama On Top 45% to 43%

McCain and Obama have been nearly tied in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for a full week. This sets the stage for a potential shift in the structure of the race resulting from next week's Democratic National Convention. Even an average "convention bounce" for Obama (a 5-point increase in his support) would give him a significant lead over McCain. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) Obama's support has not gone above 49% in any Gallup Poll Daily report since Gallup began tracking the Obama-McCain race in early March. However, given the Democratic advantage in national party identification, 50% or better support for Obama would seem to be within reach. Of course, the Republican convention starts four days after the close of the Democratic convention and could make any Democratic convention bounce for Obama short-lived.

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